Contrary to suggestions in my last post, yields across the yield curve have moved a bit today…as the above chart shows the curve is up between 5bp and 9bps. This is a result of the Reserve Bank increasing its inflation outlook over the next 2 years. The Reserve Bank believes inflation will be above its …
Category Archive: Economy
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May 06
The extreme but possible storm ahead
Attended a Researcher’s conference yesterday which had an interesting line-up of speakers that covered China, the global economy, Small cap stocks, and . The first guy was very impressive, an investment Strategist, he did a “Me-style” global economic presentation (perhaps that’s why I liked him) where the key points were… Commodity Prices in a bubble Australian …
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May 03
Australian Government Bond Yield Curve
With last week’s high CPI figures coming out there has been increased talk about the Reserve Bank increasing interest rates. The above yield curve chart shows that since 12 April, the yields on government bonds have actually decreased across the board by around 20bps suggesting less long term confidence in our economy than two weeks ago. …
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Apr 30
Macroeconomic Rap – Keynes vs Kayek – Parts I and II
Just got onto these courtesy of Felix Salmon. Both of these are so clever with outstanding production. I’v never learnt so much or gained so much clarity about macroeconomics in such a short time…and they’re rap songs! My favourite is probably Round Two but the first is still a must. Brilliant! Send article as …
Mar 21
Latest Australian Government Bond Yield Curve
As expected the yield curve is much flatter than the last couple of months but nothing too dramatic. The Japanese tragedies will have an impact on global economy as well as its own but it is more likely to be a short term negative impact that will possibly turn into a growth story later in …
Mar 18
Commodity Prices Boom/Bust History
Source: www.macrobusiness.com.au Found the above chart on the brilliant Australian blog, www.macrobusiness.com.au, and its quite a frightening picture indeed. As the headline says, “at no time in the last 200 yeasr have commodity prices risen as fast and as high as in the last decade without a sharp decline”. When you throw in the fact …
Mar 03
Australian Government Bond Yields – Pretty Quiet…and other thoughts
I haven’t posted too often this year and the above chart pretty much shows why. This year, there hasn’t been too much change a not a great deal of interesting things to write about. Despite natural disasters, minority government, middle east issues, record food prices and climbing oil prices, our bond yields have been relatively …
Jan 10
Australian Government Bond Yield Curve
First post in a while and the first for the new year, so I thought I’d start with a popular favourite…the Australian Government Bond Yield Curve. The above chart shows the changes in the yield curve over the pas 12 months and it certainly has been an interesting ride. Equities have been largely out of favour thanks …
Nov 24
Spain is the latest focus
Source: Bloomberg The above chart shows 10 year Spanish bond yields hitting record highs overnight…this intense acceleration of yields (or sell-off) is a pretty strong sign this Euro-Sovereign crisis is a long long way from over. Expect more volatility in sharemarkets yet as Spain carries more risk to Europe and the Global Economy than Ireland …
Nov 16
Government Initiated Inflation
For the first time in a while I decided to have a detailed look at what has been driving the inflaiton results in Australia…and whilst our 2.8% inflation figure is near the top end of the RBA’s range, it is only at the top end because of government…not consumer demand as we are often led to …