Feb 13
Background According to (Elroy Dimson, 2010) the “conventional view Is that, over the long run, corporate earnings will constitute a roughly constant share of national income, and so dividends out to grow at a similar rate to the overall economy. This suggests that fast-growing economies will experience higher growth in real dividends, and hence higher …
Feb 07
Like all economies, the Australian economy is always facing significant challenges. Since 1970 there has been the 1973 oil crisis and double digit inflation of the 1970s, the 1980-81 recession, further high inflation of the 1980s, crash of 1987, the recession we had to have in 1991, Asian crisis of 1998, global tech crash from …
Feb 21
Following are my recent thoughts around markets with many charts to support these views. These views are far from complete but do represent a reasonable summary at this point in time. Income Assets Source: RBA, Delta Research & Advisory The above left chart suggests the market believes the cash rate is heading towards 1.5% …
Oct 11
Source: Morningstar Direct, Delta Research & Advisory Over the last 5 years their performance has been pretty much the same…with the obvious exception that equities has bee a much much wilder ride. The reality of bonds in this global economy is that the outlook is still not that great from the major players (US, Japan, …
May 16
Source: RBA, Delta Research & Advisory At the e shorter end of the yield curve there hasn’t been a great deal of change. This is completely expected whilst the RBA has signaled its intention to maintain its cash rate at 2.5% for some time and, whilst not easy to tell, this yield curve suggests it …
Nov 25
Source: www.economicprinciples.org The above video (hopefully its working) is easily the best description I’ve seen on how economies operate and an absolutely must see for anyone interested. In the context of the Australian economy it certainly does sound a few bells…perhaps alarm bells…particularly when you consider that the Australian economy has not experienced particularly good …
Oct 21
Source: RBA & Delta Research & Advisory The above chart shows very little change in Australian Government Bond yields over the last month which given what’s been happening in the US seems a little surprising. We’ve had massive fund managers losing confidence in the US Government and selling out of Treasury bonds and there …
Sep 23
This was written last week so is only a couple of days old so here is the RimSec monthly research report for those who are interested. Click here to download. There is the usual commentary on interest rates, the economy, and market expectations. The final article is a small piece on what is happening and …
Aug 15
I can’t believe its four weeks since my last post so obviously its been a terribly busy period. Anyway, something I have completed is a market/economic update and if anyone’s interested you can download it here. The update is probably consistent with what is being said everywhere…but either way… The mining investment boom is over …