Mar 20
Well…not normal yet. The shorter part of the curve suggests the market is expecting another two 25bps cuts by the RBA but with the Euro sovereign crisis well and truly looking much better its highly unlikely there’ll be any cuts soon. Whilst there’s plenty of evidence that shows the Euro sovereign crisis has improved, nothing …
Mar 06
Source: RBA I know the above chart is a couple of days old but there’s not much change since last Thursday. At its simplest what it shows is that the bond market is still expecting the Reserve Bank to decrease interest rates some time during the year…with 1 year bond yields at less than 4%, …
Feb 09
When I saw the headline in the Market section of today’s Australian Financial Review I thought bond yields must have gone through the roof but the above chart shows that there ‘s only a relatively small increase compared to a couple of weeks ago. Markets had obviously priced in a rate decrease from the Reserve …
Feb 07
I was just reading the latest riveting story on bonds in this month’s Asset magazine and I feel compelled to share an example of misinformation that tends to annoy me a little (I know its probably a little pathetic but anyway)…John O’Brien, van Eyk – Head of Research, apparently said that many of the great …
Feb 03
Can’t believe I missed this…one of the finest finance thinkers around, Satyajit Das, has a blog entry on Economonitor discussing the current risks of the Australian economy…please click here for Part 1 and here for Part 2. So these are the must read, not Fureyous… đŸ™‚ In these articles Das eloquently articulates the major influences on …
Jan 29
Source: RBA Its been a few weeks since I provided an update on the local government yield curve and consistent with the slight improvement in the sharemarket the Australian Government Bond Yield Curve has indicated a better outlook for the local economy. As the chart shows, since 6 January the yield curve has increased around …
Jan 11
Source: RBA The above chart shows the latest Australian Government Bond Yield curve which is around 5 to 2obps higher than it was a little over three weeks ago. On the scale of yield curve movement over the last few months its largely market noise and is therefore relatively meaningless…the market is still pricing in further …
Jan 10
Source: RBA The above chart shows pretty much what happened to the outlook for the Austrlaian economy and why bonds were the best investment for the year. It shows the longer terms yields (3 years and above) dropping by up to 200bps thus providing very large capital gains for bond investors who had the courage …
Dec 19
I’ve read a few too many times how Australia is well positioned because of its exporting links to China and how this should help us escape any serious economic issues flowing out of Europe. Obviously our markets haven’t quite agreed with that with bond yields dropping massively over recent months and our equity market continuing …
Nov 30
Normally I don’t like to comment on actions by the Australian Government but with the announcement of a cut in expenses in order to obtain a budget surplus I have to. Its widely recognised that the level of Australian Government debt is very low by world standards. If you look at my last post on …