Source: RBA Just when you think the yield curve can’t get any lower, the last 8 days have taken another 10 to 15bps off. Sharemarkets have obviously dropped on the Euro-debacle and this yield curve demonstrates not only significant interest rate reductions in the months to come but a significantly slowing Australian eonomy thanks to …
Tag Archive: Economy
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Nov 03
Australian Government Bond Yields…more rate cuts to come?
Source: RBA In just 3 business days the yield curve has dropped down to where it was at the end of September where markets had experienced eight weeks of gloom and doom. Mind you, a lot happened in the three days to the end of yesterday…including the Greek’s putting significant doubt in the Euro rescue …
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Oct 29
Australian Government Bond Yields…small improvement
The last month has shown a bit of a bounce-back in the sharemarkets but as the above yield curve indicates, so far its more of a dead cat bounce and there’s a long way to go. The yield curve is still negatively sloping to beyond two years indicating the market is expecting a few rate …
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Oct 07
Australian Government Bond Yield Curve…not much change
I don’t really have too much to say on this as nothing has really changed too significantly…the market is expecting interest rate cuts with an economy influenced by overseas events. The uncertainty in markets remains huge and its difficult to feel bullish on sharemarkets or the global economy and the downside risks clearly remain as nothing is resolved. …
Sep 26
Sensational Bearish Interview
Found this via Zero Hedge …sensational interview on the BBC with a trader who believes “Goldman Sachs rules the world” and that “this economic crisis is like a cancer, if you just wait and wait thinking this is going to go away, just like a cancer its going to grow and its gong to be …
Sep 22
Europe equity markets getting smashed…
…and US futures not looking much better. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 4.4% at the time of writing; UK, German, French, and Spanish equity markets are all down more than 4.3%. The S&P500 futures are down around 1.5% and Australia’s SPI200 is also down around 1%. Plenty of downside risk yet whilst politicians kick …
Sep 21
Tonight should be a turning point…either way
With the Federal Open Mark Committee (FOMC) currently meeting, many pundits are expecting a very very big package to be announced by Ben Bernanke tomorrow. If its not what the market expects, then I imagine there’ll be more equity market pain but if it is big, then I’m confident we’ll see a strong market (so …
Sep 16
Australian Government Bond Yield Curve…still dropping
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia I’ve just updated my last yield curve from just over two weeks ago and as the above chart shows yields have dropped another ~40bps since then. This is an indication of the lack of global stability driven out of Europe and US and a resolution to their issues is clearly …
Sep 10
A few thoughts on investment strategy for today
With the US heading towards recession and the Euro Sovereign Crisis getting ugly again where to invest one’s funds has never been tougher. Australian bonds yields are around 4%, meaning they are on PE ratio of 25 which compared to local and global shares, which are currently on forward PEs of around 10, are very …
Sep 07
US 10yr Treasury bonds at record low
Source: Federal Reserve I’ve been a little slow on this, but last Friday US 10 Year Treasur bond funds hit their lowest point on record???, well at least since the start of 1962 which is how far back this Federal Reserve data went. What does it mean? Possibly a few things. Firstly, inflation is a …