I just had a meeting with Charlie Lanchester, who manages half of Perpetual’s massive Industrial Share Fund, and his views on the Australian economy were far more dire than many commentators are saying. Like many, he believes that commodity prices are very high and showing signs of faultering (doesn’t mean they going to crash just …
Tag Archive: Economy
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May 06
Increase in Government Bond Yields Today
Contrary to suggestions in my last post, yields across the yield curve have moved a bit today…as the above chart shows the curve is up between 5bp and 9bps. This is a result of the Reserve Bank increasing its inflation outlook over the next 2 years. The Reserve Bank believes inflation will be above its …
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May 06
The extreme but possible storm ahead
Attended a Researcher’s conference yesterday which had an interesting line-up of speakers that covered China, the global economy, Small cap stocks, and . The first guy was very impressive, an investment Strategist, he did a “Me-style” global economic presentation (perhaps that’s why I liked him) where the key points were… Commodity Prices in a bubble Australian …
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May 03
Australian Government Bond Yield Curve
With last week’s high CPI figures coming out there has been increased talk about the Reserve Bank increasing interest rates. The above yield curve chart shows that since 12 April, the yields on government bonds have actually decreased across the board by around 20bps suggesting less long term confidence in our economy than two weeks ago. …
Apr 30
Macroeconomic Rap – Keynes vs Kayek – Parts I and II
Just got onto these courtesy of Felix Salmon. Both of these are so clever with outstanding production. I’v never learnt so much or gained so much clarity about macroeconomics in such a short time…and they’re rap songs! My favourite is probably Round Two but the first is still a must. Brilliant! Send article as …
Mar 21
Latest Australian Government Bond Yield Curve
As expected the yield curve is much flatter than the last couple of months but nothing too dramatic. The Japanese tragedies will have an impact on global economy as well as its own but it is more likely to be a short term negative impact that will possibly turn into a growth story later in …
Mar 18
Commodity Prices Boom/Bust History
Source: www.macrobusiness.com.au Found the above chart on the brilliant Australian blog, www.macrobusiness.com.au, and its quite a frightening picture indeed. As the headline says, “at no time in the last 200 yeasr have commodity prices risen as fast and as high as in the last decade without a sharp decline”. When you throw in the fact …
Mar 21
My 5 Minute Economic Update
Whilst many have declared the global financial crisis over, lingering side effects are still prevalent in numerous forms throughout the world. The financial crisis started as a credit crisis amongst the banks but has now moved to credit concerns amongst some of the governments of the world. Recent financial news has centred on the debt …