Jan 11
Source: RBA, Delta Research & Advisory I had no idea that I’ve only posted twice since November, so here I am again with my favourite chart, the Australian Government Bond Yield. As the above chart shows, over the past couple of months, yields have increased on average around 20bps across the longer end of the …
Dec 18
Source:RBA, Delta Research & Advisory As the title of this post suggests, no real significant movement over the past month or since the RBA dropped its cash rate down by 25bps. The yield curve has improved marginally but overall its still within its trading range that was more or less set between May and June …
Dec 08
Source: Mornngstar Direct, Delta Research & Advisory The above chart shows distributions of excess monthly returns over the UBS Bank Bill index from July 2000 to November 2012 for four different indexes that more or less represent the different strategies a bond portfolio can accept… Citi AusBiig 1-3 Yr index … representing short duration Citi …
Nov 15
Source: RBA I’ve uploaded the above chart in preparation for a presentation I’m giving tomorrow on portfolio construction. Anyway, the message isn’t really a great deal different from previous posts commenting on the Government bond yield curve. Namely, Interest rates are very low…you should be able to get some nice low fixed interest rates for …
Nov 09
Its widely agreed that size-weighted fixed interest benchmarks are a poor construct when it comes to creating the optimal fixed interest portfolio. The logic from most people goes along the lines of “why would I accept the index as optimal and overweight my portfolio with the biggest issuers because they are the riskiest and more likely to default …
Oct 22
Source: RBA & Delta Research & Advisory I can’t believe how time is flying and it is more than a month since I posted my last bond yield curve. The Mid Year Economic & Fiscal Outlook released today has provided numbers supporting a further slowdown in government revenue and this economic weakness has certainly been …
Oct 05
Source: Delta Research & Advisory, RBA, Morningstar Direct The above chart shows the forward 5 year annualised return of the UBS Composite Index and the 5 year Australian Government Bond index. The last data point in the chart is Septembr 2007 meaning the forward 5 year return is the annualised return of the UBS Composite …
Sep 18
Source: RBA, Delta Research & Advisory Bizaarely as it seems but the above chart shows that over the last month the Australian Government Bond Yield curve has barely budged. There’s really no more than 5 to 10 bps difference across all terms and when you consider the various big announcements, economic results from here, overseas …
Aug 20
Source: RBA With equity markets improving over the past few weeks, so too have Australian Government Bond yields increased. 10 Year yields were below 3% a couple of months ago and now they are hovering near 3.5%. For Australian bond fund owners that should be a capital loss of close to 2% since mid-June. Nevetheless …
Aug 11
Its been a while since I put some of my broader investment thoughts in writing and I’ve just written almost 4000 words to satisfy that…so it also sort of makes up for my lack of posting. So below is a lot of what I have written and hopefully its readable for anyone interested…I actually haven’t …